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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.